粤高速A：Q3业绩超预期，归母净利同增6%

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company reported Q3 results that exceeded expectations, with a 6% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.502 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.03% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.356 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.01% year-on-year [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company generated revenue of 1.271 billion yuan, down 5.64% year-on-year, primarily due to traffic diversion from newly opened highways [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 501 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.45% [2][6] - The company's operating costs in Q3 were 399 million yuan, a decrease of 5.08% year-on-year, and financial expenses dropped by 23.94% due to reduced interest expenses [6] Investment Insights - Investment income in Q3 increased significantly by 78.19% to 103 million yuan, mainly due to dividends from Guangle Expressway [6] - The depreciation period for completed sections of the Guangzhu East Expressway has been extended to 2052, which is expected to reduce depreciation expenses by 17.4 million yuan in 2024, increasing net profit by approximately 979,000 yuan [6] Dividend Policy - The company maintains a high dividend policy, with a planned payout ratio of no less than 70% for 2024-2026, resulting in an estimated dividend yield of about 4.7% based on the closing price of 11.15 yuan on October 24 [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 4.676 billion yuan, 4.773 billion yuan, and 4.884 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.16%, 2.08%, and 2.32% respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.578 billion yuan, 1.627 billion yuan, and 1.676 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of -3.42%, 3.10%, and 3.02% respectively [7]