恒力石化：需求仍在磨底，未来有望复苏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hengli Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - Demand is still at a low point, but recovery is expected in the future [3] - The company reported total revenue of 177.857 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.45% [2][6] - In Q3 2024, total revenue was 65.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.44%, with net profit of 1.087 billion yuan, down 59.01% year-on-year and down 42.14% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the average price spread of polyolefins and crude oil was 3,211 yuan/ton, up 16.10% year-on-year and 9.39% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The PTA-PX price spread averaged 315 yuan/ton, up 66.57% year-on-year, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [6] - The apparent consumption of refined oil in Q3 2024 was 97 million tons, down 4.87% year-on-year [6] - The average price spread for diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene was 1,099 yuan, 1,619 yuan, and 1,416 yuan per ton, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -9.19%, +7.53%, and +29.24% [6] - The average PX-crude oil price spread was 2,760 yuan/ton, down 16.91% year-on-year [6] Cost and Competitive Position - Coal prices averaged 848 yuan/ton in Q3 2024, down 2.09% year-on-year, providing a cost advantage for the company [6] - The company has a coal processing capacity of 5 million tons per year, benefiting from lower raw material prices [6] Growth Potential - New materials are expected to be fully operational in the second half of 2024, with a 1.6 million tons/year high-performance resin project and functional film projects progressing as planned [6] - The company anticipates that the gradual release of new material capacity will open up growth opportunities if downstream demand improves [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see net profits of 6.8 billion yuan, 9.8 billion yuan, and 12.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.97 yuan, 1.40 yuan, and 1.75 yuan [6][7] - The projected P/E ratios are 14.9X, 10.3X, and 8.2X for the same years [6][7]