汽车行业：如何理解汽车板块的超额收益和结构性机会？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive sector is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The excess returns in the automotive sector are strongly coupled with the year-on-year growth rate of sales, driven by policy stimuli (demand side) or supply improvements [5][11] - Structural opportunities in the automotive sector arise from domestic brand substitution, increasing penetration rates of electric and intelligent vehicles, globalization of production capacity, and new business models transitioning from hardware sales to software and value-added services [2][11] Summary by Sections 1. Conditions for Excess Returns in the Automotive Sector - Historical data indicates that periods of sustained growth in automotive sales (e.g., from September 2008 to January 2010, September 2015 to October 2016, July 2020 to February 2021, and May 2022 to September 2022) correlate with significant excess returns in the automotive sector [5] - Key drivers for sales growth include policy stimuli and improvements in supply, such as new model launches and technological innovations [5] 2. Sources of Structural Opportunities in the Automotive Sector - Domestic brand substitution is gaining momentum, with local brands increasingly replacing joint venture brands due to improvements in technology and quality [5][11] - The penetration rates of electric and intelligent vehicles are on the rise, leading to increased demand for related products [5][11] - Globalization is evident as more Chinese automotive companies establish overseas production bases and expand into international markets, enhancing their competitiveness [5][11] - The automotive industry is shifting towards new business models that focus on software and value-added services, providing sustainable revenue sources [5][11] 3. Current Perspective on Excess Returns and Structural Opportunities - The automotive industry is nearing the end of the current vehicle replacement policy cycle, with expectations of a new round of stimulus policies [11] - Anticipated demand release in Q4 2024 and the launch of new models during peak sales periods are expected to boost sales growth [11] - For 2025, continued fiscal policy support is expected, with the automotive sector likely to be a focal point for counter-cyclical adjustments [11] - Key structural opportunities include the continued rise of domestic brands, acceleration in high-level intelligent penetration, global production capacity establishment, and new growth avenues in intelligent driving and robotics [11][12] 4. Stock Recommendations - Focus on leading companies with strong performance and growth certainty, particularly in segments benefiting from market optimization and new vehicle cycles, such as BYD and its affiliates [12][13] - In the parts sector, attention should be given to single-category leaders with solid market shares, multi-category expansion companies, and undervalued quality parts manufacturers [12][13]