Monalisa(002918) 天风证券·2024-10-25 14:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential despite short-term challenges [4][6] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was significantly pressured, with revenue and net profit declining sharply due to weak demand in the real estate and construction ceramics sectors [1] - Raw material price increases have significantly impacted profitability, with Q3 gross margin dropping by 3.55 percentage points year-over-year [2] - Despite cost pressures, the company's cash flow has shown continuous improvement, with CFO net inflow increasing by RMB 39 million year-over-year in the first three quarters [3] - The report expects the company's profitability to improve if raw material costs continue to decline [2] - Long-term growth potential remains strong, with market share expansion expected if industry demand recovers [4] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - Q1-3 2024 revenue: RMB 3.572 billion, down 21.41% year-over-year [1] - Q1-3 2024 net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 141 million, down 57.85% year-over-year [1] - Q3 2024 revenue: RMB 1.238 billion, down 24.30% year-over-year [1] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 58 million, down 65.72% year-over-year [1] Profitability - Q3 2024 gross margin: 29.01%, down 3.55 percentage points year-over-year [2] - Q1-3 2024 gross margin: 27.6%, down 2.0 percentage points year-over-year [2] - Q1-3 2024 net margin: 3.99%, down 4.25 percentage points year-over-year [3] Cash Flow - Q1-3 2024 CFO net inflow: RMB 515 million, up RMB 39 million year-over-year [3] - Collection ratio: 111.7%, up 7.92 percentage points year-over-year [3] - Payment ratio: 99.46%, down 3.01 percentage points year-over-year [3] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue: RMB 4.465 billion, down 24.59% year-over-year [5] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 201.59 million, down 24.28% year-over-year [5] - 2025E revenue: RMB 4.500 billion, up 0.78% year-over-year [5] - 2025E net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 235.20 million, up 16.68% year-over-year [5] - 2026E revenue: RMB 4.757 billion, up 5.71% year-over-year [5] - 2026E net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 318.60 million, up 35.46% year-over-year [5] Industry and Market Position - The company is a leading player in the ceramic tile industry, with potential for market share expansion if industry demand recovers [4] - The report highlights the company's strong position in the home furnishing sector within the light manufacturing industry [6] Valuation Metrics - 2024E P/E: 17.96x [5] - 2024E P/B: 0.99x [5] - 2024E P/S: 0.81x [5] - 2024E EV/EBITDA: 4.32x [5]