华金宏观·双循环周报（第79期）：如何评估三季度经济的需求结构？

Economic Overview - In Q3 2024, actual GDP growth was 4.6%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from Q2 2024, with net exports contributing significantly at 2.0 percentage points, marking the second-highest quarterly contribution since 2015[1] - Final consumption and capital formation contributed only 1.3 percentage points each to GDP growth, down 0.8 and 0.6 percentage points from Q2 2024, respectively, indicating a decline in domestic demand[1] Consumption Trends - Disposable income growth increased by 0.5 percentage points to 5.0% in Q3 2024, but average consumption propensity fell by 0.2 percentage points to 68.4%, reflecting weakened consumer sentiment[1] - Commodity consumption declined by 1.5 percentage points to 2.3%, while service consumption decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 4.8%, indicating a shift in consumer preferences amid ongoing real estate market adjustments[1] Investment Dynamics - Capital formation's contribution to GDP dropped to 1.3 percentage points, with significant declines in real estate value and infrastructure investment due to local government debt pressures[1] - Fixed asset investment growth averaged 4.5%, 3.6%, and 2.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, showing a consistent downward trend[1] Export Performance - Net exports reached a peak contribution to GDP growth, driven by preemptive export activities before new trade barriers were implemented, but future contributions are expected to decline due to cooling global demand[1] - The current economic policy aims to balance growth, structure, and exchange rate stability without reverting to previous leverage-driven growth strategies[1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The forecast remains unchanged for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut by year-end 2024 and a 100 basis point cut in 2025, with a projected fiscal deficit rate increase to 4.2% in 2025[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach, with only a 25 basis point rate cut anticipated, which may lead to upward pressure on the US dollar and further depreciation of the RMB[1]