回顾日本70年：经济、政策与大类资产复盘

Economic Overview - Japan's economy has undergone significant changes since 1946, experiencing phases of prosperity, decline, and recovery, categorized into six stages[6] - The period from 1946 to 1973 saw Japan's GDP growth averaging around 10% annually, with a capital accumulation rate peaking at 39%[12][14] - The "Lost Two Decades" from 1990 to 2011 resulted in stagnant economic growth, with the Nikkei 225 index declining by 11.04% from 1990 to 1997[43][75] Policy and Economic Strategies - The "Abenomics" policy from 2012 to 2019 included aggressive monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms, leading to a recovery in the stock market with a growth rate of 12.46%[82] - Japan's government debt reached approximately 227% of GDP by 2023, reflecting extensive fiscal measures to stimulate the economy[88] Market Trends and Asset Performance - From 1974 to 2023, the annualized return for Japanese stocks (Nikkei 225) was 4.19%, while U.S. stocks (S&P 500) led with 8.09%[95] - In the period from 2020 to 2023, Japanese stocks achieved a cumulative return of 9.06%, benefiting from a recovery in the economy and favorable monetary policies[93] External Influences - The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a significant influx of foreign direct investment into Japan, with net inflows of $626 billion in 2020,$352 billion in 2021, and $493 billion in 2022[89] - Japan's economic recovery post-pandemic has been supported by stable PMI readings, indicating a resilient manufacturing and service sector[88] Risks and Future Outlook - Potential risks include discrepancies in economic data, underperformance of the Japanese economy, and unexpected macroeconomic policy changes[98] - The Bank of Japan's recent shift to a tightening monetary policy may impact market dynamics, necessitating close monitoring of economic indicators and corporate performance[97]