CSEC,China Shenhua(601088) 信达证券·2024-10-26 08:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Shenhua (601088) is "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The report indicates that the coal and power sectors have shown a quarter-on-quarter improvement in profitability, with integrated operations maintaining stable performance [1]. - The company achieved operating revenue of 253.899 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 46.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.55% [1]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in quarterly profits, particularly in the coal segment, due to a decrease in production costs and an increase in sales volume [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company produced 244.4 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and sold 345.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1]. - The average selling price for long-term contracts was 492 yuan/ton, down 2.6% year-on-year, while the monthly contract price decreased by 12.8% to 713 yuan/ton [1]. - The coal segment's revenue for the first three quarters was 201.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with total profit of 41.104 billion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year [1]. Power Generation - The total power generation for the first three quarters was 1681.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, with total sales of 1582.7 billion kWh, up 7.8% year-on-year [1]. - The average utilization hours for domestic coal-fired power generation were 3801 hours, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, with the coal-fired electricity price at 399 yuan/MWh, down 3.4% [1]. Transportation and Coal Chemical Sectors - The railway segment reported operating revenue of 32.672 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, while the port segment saw revenue of 5.133 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1% [2]. - The coal chemical segment experienced a significant decline in profitability, with revenue down 9.9% and total profit down 48.8% due to scheduled maintenance of production equipment [2]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that economic stimulus policies will lead to a marginal improvement in demand, keeping coal prices at a mid-to-high level [3]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 58.411 billion yuan, 60.245 billion yuan, and 62.304 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with EPS projected at 2.94, 3.03, and 3.14 yuan per share [3].