增量政策仍在“在路上”，利好钢材价格走势钢铁

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [1]. Core Viewpoints - Incremental policies are being implemented, which is favorable for steel prices. The National Development and Reform Commission has indicated that nearly half of the incremental policies have been introduced, with the remaining policies expected to be expedited. This is anticipated to boost market confidence and support steel price trends [2][3]. - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions and overall profit declines, the steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase due to support from real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, and sustained manufacturing development. The tightening of steel supply under controlled policies is also expected to maintain a balanced supply-demand situation [2][3]. - The report suggests structural investment opportunities in the steel sector, particularly in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control and scale effects. Companies such as Jiu Li Special Materials, Changbao Co., and Wujin Stainless Steel are highlighted as beneficiaries of the new energy cycle [2][3]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 0.36%, underperforming the broader market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.79%. The special steel sector fell by 3.19%, while long products and flat products increased by 1.88% and 0.68%, respectively [6][7]. Key Data - As of October 25, 2024, the average daily pig iron output was 2.3569 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.33 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 7.04 tons. The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 88.5%, up by 0.49 percentage points week-on-week [9][12]. - The total output of five major steel products reached 7.83 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.02% [11][12]. - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.938 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.88% [12][15]. Inventory and Price Trends - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.19% week-on-week, while factory inventory increased by 3.71% [1][2]. - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel prices was 3,697.2 yuan per ton, down by 1.24% week-on-week [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are expected to benefit from the new energy cycle, high-end equipment manufacturing, and domestic substitution. Key companies include Shougang Resources, Hegang Resources, and leading steel enterprises like Hualing Steel and Baosteel [2][3].