ACEG(600502) CAITONG SECURITIES·2024-10-26 10:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue recognition continues to slow down, and operating cash flow is under pressure year-on-year [2] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 53.963 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.962 billion yuan, down 9.55% year-on-year [2] - The company has seen a rapid growth in new contracts for traditional infrastructure, while emerging businesses are gradually showing growth potential [2][3] - The company expects to achieve operating revenues of 81.95 billion yuan, 78.58 billion yuan, and 81.49 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with net profits of 1.27 billion yuan, 1.16 billion yuan, and 1.35 billion yuan respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's gross profit margin was 12.22%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 1.78%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company reported a net cash outflow from operating activities of 5.255 billion yuan, which is an increase in outflow of 5.367 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - The company signed new contracts worth 103.76 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.21% [2][3] - The company’s new business segments, including design testing, intelligent manufacturing, and building materials trade, have shown significant growth, with new orders increasing by 37.9%, 255.8%, and 157.5% respectively [2] Future Projections - The company forecasts a revenue growth rate of -10.19% for 2024, -4.11% for 2025, and a recovery to 3.69% in 2026 [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 0.74 yuan, decreasing from 0.91 yuan in 2023, with a PE ratio of 6.65 for 2024 [4][5]