TINCI(SZ:002709) Soochow Securities·2024-10-26 11:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance is generally in line with expectations, with revenue of 8.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 340 million yuan, down 80.7% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 is 18.5%, down 9.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is 3.8%, down 10.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company expects a 20%-25% growth in electrolyte shipments for the full year 2024, with an estimated total shipment of nearly 500,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 40% [2] - The profitability of the electrolyte segment is projected to improve, with a net profit of approximately 110 million yuan in Q3 2024, and the unit profit is expected to stabilize [2][3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024 downwards while raising the forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with expected net profits of 560 million yuan, 1.55 billion yuan, and 2.36 billion yuan respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 8.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 340 million yuan, down 80.7% year-on-year [2] - Q3 2024 revenue was 3.41 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.5% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 17.9%, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 percentage points [2] Production and Sales - The company expects to ship approximately 136,000 tons of electrolytes in Q3 2024, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 20% [2] - The total expected shipments for 2024 are around 550,000 tons, with a market share increase anticipated [2] Cost and Expenses - Total expenses for Q1-Q3 2024 were 1.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, with a cost rate of 13.1%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points [3] - Capital expenditures for Q1-Q3 2024 were 630 million yuan, a significant decrease of 76.8% year-on-year [3] Profitability Forecast - The company has adjusted its 2024 net profit forecast to 560 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 70% [3] - The expected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 64, 23, and 15 respectively [3]