紫燕食品：公司季报点评：单店仍有承压，利润率略有下降

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue decline of 4.61% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 at 2.687 billion yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 349 million yuan, an increase of 2.19% year-on-year [6][7] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 26.22%, up 2.02 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in raw material costs [6] - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.87 yuan, 0.98 yuan, and 1.10 yuan respectively, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20-25 times for 2024 [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.023 billion yuan, down 4.61% year-on-year, with a net profit of 151 million yuan, a decrease of 6.78% year-on-year. The cash collection was 1.161 billion yuan, down 24.52% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 28.54%, down 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.57%, down 0.53 percentage points year-on-year [6] Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from spicy snack products increased by 20.55% year-on-year in Q3 2024. Revenue from fresh goods, pre-packaged and other products, packaging materials, and franchise fees showed varied performance, with fresh goods revenue at 873 million yuan, down 4.37% year-on-year [6] - Revenue by region in Q3 2024 showed declines across all areas, with the largest drop in South China at 28.66% year-on-year [7] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to have a PE ratio of 20-25 times for 2024, with a reasonable value range of 17.4 to 21.75 yuan per share [7][8] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 3.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year, with a net profit forecast of 361 million yuan, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [8][10]