NEWAY(603699) 国泰君安·2024-10-26 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 29.04 CNY based on a 2024 PE of 22 times [4][9]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the industrial valve sector, with a continuous increase in global market share. The downstream sectors such as oil and gas extraction, refining, marine engineering, LNG, nuclear power, and water treatment are experiencing high demand, indicating sustained growth potential for the company [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.455 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 828 million CNY, up 40.69% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 816 million CNY, reflecting a 29.66% increase [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.62 billion CNY, down 10.98% year-on-year, primarily due to high shipment volumes and revenue recognition in Q3 2023. The net profit for Q3 was 340 million CNY, an increase of 34.88% year-on-year, driven by a significant improvement in gross margin [4][5]. Profitability and Market Position - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 38.9%, an increase of 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas revenue, product structure upgrades, and declining raw material prices. The net profit margin for Q3 was 21.0%, up 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company’s domestic market share is approximately 2%, while its global market share stands at around 0.5%. The company is positioned as a leading domestic industrial valve brand expanding internationally, with over 65% of its revenue coming from overseas [4][5]. Future Outlook - The company has raised its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.32 CNY, 1.59 CNY, and 1.89 CNY respectively, from previous estimates of 1.22 CNY, 1.42 CNY, and 1.71 CNY. The expected revenue growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 6.2%, 20.3%, and 19.9% respectively [4][5].