Jiangsu JieJie Microelectronics (300623) 开源证券·2024-10-26 14:40Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [1] Core Views - Strong Q3 2024 performance with significant revenue and profit growth driven by downstream market recovery and product structure upgrades [1] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 2,006 million yuan, up 40.63% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 333 million yuan, up 133.37% YoY [1] - Gross margin improved to 38.22%, up 3.66 percentage points YoY [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 743 million yuan, up 41.50% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 119 million yuan, up 155.31% YoY [1] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 reached 40.14%, up 7.29 percentage points YoY [1] - Slight downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 445/601/800 million yuan due to slower-than-expected downstream market recovery [1] Business Performance and Growth Drivers - Downstream market recovery and product structure upgrades drove revenue growth, with increased capacity utilization and profitability [2] - Non-recurring gains of 51.7 million yuan, including 33.04 million yuan from disposal of non-current assets, contributed to net profit [2] - Nantong project achieved a monthly capacity of 100,000 wafers, with a yield rate above 95%, supporting future growth in high-end power semiconductor devices [3] - Automotive-grade packaging and testing project expected to generate 1.9 billion units annually, with potential sales of 2 billion yuan upon completion [3] Financial Projections - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026: 2,850/3,691/4,486 million yuan, with YoY growth of 35.3%/29.5%/21.5% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders forecast for 2024-2026: 445/601/800 million yuan, with YoY growth of 103.0%/35.2%/33.1% [4] - Gross margin expected to improve to 38.1%/38.7%/39.2% for 2024-2026 [4] - ROE projected to increase to 9.1%/11.0%/12.9% for 2024-2026 [4] Valuation Metrics - Current P/E ratios for 2024-2026: 74.2x/54.9x/41.2x [4] - P/B ratios for 2024-2026: 8.6x/7.5x/6.5x [4] - EV/EBITDA ratios for 2024-2026: 36.6x/28.2x/22.4x [7]