中国神华2024年三季报点评：业绩超预期，彰显龙头实力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4][13]. Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, showcasing its leading position in the coal industry. The market share in the coal sector continues to rise, with future capacity increases anticipated [2][3]. - For the first three quarters, the company achieved operating revenue of 253.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 46.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. In Q3 alone, operating revenue reached 85.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 16.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, surpassing market expectations [3][4]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal in Q3 was 528 yuan per ton, an increase of 7 yuan per ton year-on-year, indicating a potential end to the downward trend in average prices that began in 2023 [3]. - The company's coal production in Q3 reached 81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with sales volume of 116 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 3.08, 3.09, and 3.19 yuan respectively, with a target price maintained at 47.77 yuan [3][4]. - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 343.1 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.4% from 2022, while net profit is expected to decline by 14.3% to 59.7 billion yuan [4]. - The company's total assets as of 2023 are 630.1 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 151.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net asset value of 478.4 billion yuan [6][4].