爱玛科技2024Q3业绩点评：修复趋势总体延续

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report indicates a continued recovery trend for the company, with Q3 2024 performance showing a slight decline in revenue but stable net profit margins [2] - The company has benefited from an increase in average selling price (ASP) and net profit per unit, despite a decrease in overall sales volume due to industry-wide challenges [2] - The report highlights the potential for policy catalysts in Q4, including the old-for-new exchange program and new national standards, which may enhance industry concentration and support recovery [2] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 6.87 billion (down 5.1% year-on-year), with a net profit of 600 million (down 9.0% year-on-year) and a non-recurring net profit of 550 million (down 9.8% year-on-year) [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 17.46 billion (flat year-on-year), with a net profit of 1.55 billion (down 0.3% year-on-year) and a non-recurring net profit of 1.45 billion (flat year-on-year) [2] - The report notes that excluding stock incentive expenses of approximately 50 million, the actual net profit showed a year-on-year decline of only 2%, indicating a better performance relative to revenue [2] Sales and Profitability Insights - The report estimates Q3 2024 sales volume at 3.45 million units (down 10% year-on-year), with an ASP of approximately 1984 yuan (up 5.5% year-on-year) and a net profit per unit of 174 yuan (up 1% year-on-year) [2] - The gross profit margin showed a slight recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The report emphasizes that the company’s gross and net profit margins are expected to continue their recovery trend despite competitive pricing pressures in the industry [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast has been adjusted, with projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 22.0 billion, 25.3 billion, and 28.5 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 15%, and 13% [3] - The forecast for net profit for the same years is set at 2.0 billion, 2.4 billion, and 2.9 billion respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 6.8%, 19.6%, and 19.7% [3]