XQL Slewing Bearing(300850) 国泰君安·2024-10-27 03:09Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target price of 25.61 CNY, down from the previous target of 46.99 CNY [5] Core Views - The company, as a leading wind power bearing manufacturer, is expected to benefit from the high demand for wind power installations during the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2025) [2][3] - The company's performance is expected to improve significantly in 2025, driven by increased demand for wind power installations and potential price increases for its products [3] - The company's overseas expansion strategy, in collaboration with wind turbine manufacturers, is expected to support long-term growth [3] Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 2,653 million CNY in 2022 to 3,816 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 9.5% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 316 million CNY in 2022 to 442 million CNY in 2026, despite a significant drop in 2024 due to non-recurring losses [2] - EPS is expected to rebound from 0.00 CNY in 2024 to 1.23 CNY in 2026 [2] Industry Outlook - Domestic wind power installations are expected to increase significantly in 2025, driven by the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - Global wind power installations are projected to grow from 117 GW in 2023 to 131 GW in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.4% over the next five years [3] Company Strategy - The company is focusing on technological breakthroughs in offshore wind power bearings, which is expected to open up new market opportunities [3] - The company is deepening its cooperation with downstream customers and is expected to benefit from the overseas expansion of wind turbine manufacturers [3] Valuation - The report uses a 2025 PE valuation of 23.28x, based on the average PE of comparable companies, to arrive at a target price of 25.61 CNY [12][13]