爱玛科技：受换标影响，Q3单季度收入下滑

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a target price of 43.52 CNY over the next six months, corresponding to a 2025 PE valuation of 16x [4][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.46 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.55 billion CNY, down 0.3% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 6.87 billion CNY, showing a decline of 5.1% year-on-year, and the net profit was 600 million CNY, down 9.0% year-on-year [1]. - The upcoming new national standards are expected to raise industry barriers, which may accelerate the market share growth of leading companies [1]. - The cautious inventory replenishment by channels ahead of the new standards and consumer expectations of potential government subsidies for trade-ins are contributing to the short-term revenue decline [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue growth slowed compared to Q2, primarily due to cautious channel inventory replenishment ahead of the new national standards [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 16.8%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8.8%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 decreased to 2.71 billion CNY, down 10.4 billion CNY year-on-year, influenced by settlement cycles and methods [1]. - The company expects EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 2.19 CNY, 2.72 CNY, and 3.14 CNY respectively [1][12]. Market Position and Outlook - The electric two-wheeler industry still has expansion potential, and the company, as a leading player, is well-positioned to capture quality channel networks during the industry's growth phase [1]. - The company’s product structure has room for upgrades, and economies of scale are expected to strengthen, leading to further improvements in profitability [1].