XTC(SH:600549) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2024-10-27 03:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 26.369 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.70%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.402 billion yuan, an increase of 20.78% [1]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw revenues of 9.207 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.55% but a year-on-year decrease of 14.73%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 386 million yuan, down 33.57% quarter-on-quarter but up 4.32% year-on-year [1]. - The tungsten and molybdenum segment experienced a decline in both revenue and profit due to a drop in sales volume and price fluctuations, while the energy new materials segment showed growth driven by increased sales of lithium cobalt oxide and ternary materials [1]. - The company plans to raise up to 3.527 billion yuan for expansion projects in hard alloy cutting tools, photovoltaic tungsten wire production, and tungsten-molybdenum mining, which is expected to enhance its upstream resource and downstream processing capabilities [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 35.970 billion yuan, with net profit expected to reach 1.909 billion yuan, resulting in an EPS of 1.35 yuan [2]. - The company’s revenue growth rates are forecasted to be -8.70% in 2024, 14.17% in 2025, and 11.43% in 2026 [5]. Segment Analysis - Tungsten and Molybdenum: Q3 2024 revenue and profit are estimated at 4.468 billion yuan and 533 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.62% and 39.91% [1]. - Energy New Materials: Q3 2024 revenue and profit are estimated at 3.582 billion yuan and 140 million yuan, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 19.36% and 6.06% [1]. - Rare Earth Business: Q3 2024 revenue and profit are estimated at 1.149 billion yuan and 63 million yuan, with a slight quarter-on-quarter increase in revenue but a decline in profit [1]. - Real Estate Business: Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 3.5 million yuan, down 68.38% year-on-year, while profit totaled 68 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase due to investment gains [1]. Cost Management and Capital Structure - The company’s expense ratio decreased to 8.80% in Q3 2024, with reductions in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios [1]. - The asset-liability ratio improved to 51.27%, down 0.68 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 2.16 percentage points year-on-year [1].