食饮行业周报（2024年10月第4期）：秋糖反馈平淡，关注Q3业绩分化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage sector, specifically highlighting the second phase of a potential bull market in the industry [1][2]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is expected to experience a three-phase upward trend, with the current focus on strong Q3 performance indicators among leading companies. The report suggests that the upcoming Chinese New Year in 2025 may serve as a validation period for these trends [1][3]. - In the liquor segment, the report notes a subdued response from the autumn sugar market, emphasizing the need to monitor sustainable growth rates and macroeconomic policy shifts. The investment strategy is shifting from high-dividend stable assets to a more aggressive approach that balances fundamentals and flexibility [1][2]. - The report anticipates continued demand in the soft drink and snack sectors, driven by recent policies that may boost the restaurant supply chain. It recommends an aggressive investment strategy focusing on high-potential consumer goods [1][8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The report indicates that the liquor sector is entering its second phase of growth, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong Q3 performance. It recommends a dual investment strategy: a "blue-chip" combination featuring leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, and a more flexible combination including Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu [1][2][7]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report highlights a sustained positive outlook for the soft drink and snack sectors, with specific recommendations for investment in companies like Jin Zai Food and Three Squirrels. The report suggests that these sectors may benefit from favorable policy changes in Q4 2024 [1][8][24]. Market Performance - From October 21 to October 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.79%, while the food and beverage sector increased by 2.19%. Notably, other liquor categories and snack foods saw significant gains, with increases of 7.43% and 5.59%, respectively [1][30].