中国神华：业绩大超预期，行业龙头行稳致远

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting its stable growth and high dividend characteristics [4]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in Q3 2024, with significant revenue and profit growth, particularly in its coal and electricity segments [1][2]. - The coal division's gross profit margin improved significantly due to cost reductions and adjustments in sales structure, leading to better profitability [1]. - The electricity segment also showed remarkable performance, with increased generation and sales volumes, contributing positively to overall financial results [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 253.90 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.57%, and a net profit of CNY 46.07 billion, a decrease of 4.55% [1]. - In Q3 2024 alone, revenue reached CNY 85.82 billion, up 3.37% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 10.54% year-on-year to CNY 16.57 billion [1]. - The coal production for the first three quarters was 244 million tons, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, with sales volume reaching 345 million tons, up 3.8% year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price of coal was CNY 560 per ton, reflecting a 2.1% increase year-on-year [1]. Coal Division Insights - The coal division's gross profit margin improved to 46.3% in Q3 2024, a 6.5 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, driven by cost reductions and sales structure adjustments [1]. - The cost of self-produced coal decreased to CNY 175.4 per ton, down 10.9% year-on-year [1]. Electricity Division Insights - The company's electricity generation reached 641 billion kWh in Q3 2024, a 14.4% increase year-on-year, while sales volume was 603.8 billion kWh, up 14.9% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for electricity generation improved to 15.8%, benefiting from a decrease in sales costs [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been revised upwards, with expected net profits of CNY 59.9 billion, CNY 62.3 billion, and CNY 64.5 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 13.6, 13.1, and 12.6 times for the same years [2].