宏观周报：2024年10月第三周

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets stabilized with a weekly trading volume of 1.668 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.95%[8] - The real estate sector saw a significant policy announcement, with a focus on debt reduction and stabilizing the market, contributing to a market rebound[3] Economic Data Insights - Q3 GDP growth was reported at 4.6%, slightly below the previous value of 4.7%[14] - Industrial value-added growth in September was 5.4%, exceeding the expected 4.6%[14] - Fixed asset investment for January to September remained stable at a growth rate of 3.4%[14] - Retail sales in September increased by 3.4%, surpassing the expected 2.3%[14] Policy Developments - The government announced a plan to implement 1 million new urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, funded through local special bonds and bank loans[11] - The credit scale for "white list" real estate projects will be increased to 4 trillion yuan by the end of the year, with 2.23 trillion yuan already approved[11] - The real estate tax policy is under consideration, aiming to stabilize the market and reduce burdens on developers and buyers[13] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment improved following the release of better-than-expected economic data and supportive speeches from financial leaders[3] - The bond market showed a cautious recovery after initial reactions to real estate policy announcements, with a focus shifting back to fundamental economic conditions[3] International Context - The U.S. Federal Reserve indicated a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with expectations of a gradual reduction of 25 basis points[3] - The U.S. jobless claims were reported at 241,000, lower than the expected 260,000, indicating a stable labor market[3]