东海证券：晨会纪要-20241027

Group 1: Industry Overview - The fluorochemical industry is entering a high prosperity cycle due to favorable supply and demand dynamics, with a significant reduction in the quota for second-generation refrigerants by 2025, which is expected to drive prices up [6][7] - The demand for electronic fluorinated liquids is increasing due to the construction of data centers, presenting opportunities for domestic manufacturers as major foreign players exit the market [7] - The production capacity of fluoropolymers in China is rapidly expanding, particularly in PVDF, although prices have recently declined, indicating a need for high-end product development and capacity expansion to enhance profitability [7] Group 2: Company Analysis - Ningde Times (300750) - In the first three quarters of 2024, Ningde Times reported a revenue of 259.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.09%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15.59% to 36.001 billion yuan [8][9] - The company achieved a significant increase in battery shipments in Q3 2024, with a total of approximately 125 GWh shipped, marking a year-on-year increase of 25% [9] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 improved to 31.17%, reflecting a strong cash flow position with operating cash flow reaching 22.74 billion yuan, up 45.9% year-on-year [9] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant sector and those with a comprehensive industrial chain in the fluorochemical industry, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Dongyue Group, which are expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics [7] - For Ningde Times, the upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 reflects strong demand and improved profitability, maintaining a "buy" rating with projected net profits of 50.590 billion yuan, 61.033 billion yuan, and 74.302 billion yuan for the respective years [9]