HIKVISION(SZ:002415) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2024-10-27 05:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - Short-term growth is under pressure due to slow recovery in downstream demand, but long-term outlook is positive due to favorable debt resolution policies and digital transformation business layout [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 64.991 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.06%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.4% to 8.108 billion yuan [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 23.782 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.33% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 13.37% to 3.044 billion yuan [2] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The PBG (Public Business Group) and EBG (Enterprise Business Group) both achieved positive growth in Q3, with PBG benefiting from government support in sectors like water management and disaster relief [3] - SMBG (Small and Medium Business Group) faced significant declines due to inventory destocking, but future improvements are expected as industry inventory levels decrease [3] Technological Advancements - The company launched a new rapid coal quality detection technology in collaboration with the National Energy Group, significantly reducing the detection time from 8 hours to just 2 minutes [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 95.158 billion, 106.960 billion, and 121.029 billion yuan respectively, with net profit forecasts of 14.142 billion, 16.755 billion, and 20.462 billion yuan [5][9] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for medium to long-term performance recovery driven by fiscal policies [5]