煤炭行业周报：公募持仓回落至历史中值，基本面向好红利投资思路不改

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The current policy negotiation phase favors a balanced approach towards index dividend leaders, with a focus on coking coal as a potential area for investment in 2025 [2]. - The coal sector is advised to concentrate on core dividend leaders and capitalize on cyclical elasticity, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and China Coal Energy [4][3]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in fund holdings in the coal sector, returning to historical averages, with a shift towards long-term dividend investment strategies [4]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Data Tracking - As of October 25, 2024, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Huanghua Port is 865 CNY/ton, up 16 CNY/ton (1.9%) from the previous week [7]. - The inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased to 5.76 million tons, a rise of 240,000 tons (4.3%) [16]. - The annual long-term contract price for Q5500 thermal coal at Northern Ports is 699 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2 CNY/ton (0.3%) [20]. Coking Coal Data Tracking - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,760 CNY/ton, down 150 CNY/ton (-7.9%) from the previous week [22]. - The average price of metallurgical coke at major domestic ports is 1,926 CNY/ton, a decrease of 50 CNY/ton (-2.5%) [32]. - The cost of Australian coking coal is 213 USD/ton, down 7 USD/ton (-3.0%) [28]. Market Overview - The report notes a decline in fund holdings in the coal sector, with the top ten coal stocks' market value share dropping from 0.59% in Q2 to 0.40% [4]. - The overall supply-demand balance in the coal industry is stabilizing, leading to clearer future profitability and predictability [4]. - The report anticipates that thermal coal prices may exceed the previous high of 880 CNY/ton by the end of Q4, driven by seasonal demand increases [4].