燕京啤酒：外部需求承压，内部改革提效

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 12.846 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 4.8 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year, and a net profit of 530 million yuan, growing by 19.84% year-on-year. The performance aligns with expectations [5] - The company is expected to maintain a net profit growth of 45%, 23%, and 20% for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 26, and 21 times. The company is strengthening its core product U8 and expanding its product matrix, which provides considerable growth potential amid the high-end trend in the beer industry [5] - The company is likely to achieve continuous stepwise development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supported by ongoing internal management improvements and capacity optimization [5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 10.50 yuan - One-year high/low: 12.33/7.59 yuan - Market capitalization: 26.351 billion yuan [2] Financial Data - Net asset per share: 5.27 yuan - Asset-liability ratio: 36.18% - Total shares: 2,819 million, circulating A shares: 2,510 million [3] Sales and Profitability - Q3 beer sales volume was 3.4474 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.48%, with a Q3 average price of 4,201.98 yuan/ton, remaining flat year-on-year. The company aims to enhance channel coverage and control pricing for U8, which may improve future pricing potential [6] - The company achieved a gross margin of 47.99% in Q3, with a net profit margin of 11%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8 percentage points [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 15.122 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4%. The net profit forecast for 2024 is 935 million yuan, with a growth rate of 45.1% [7]