财政数据点评（2024.9）：财政收支明显改善，会持续多久？

Revenue Insights - In September, the national general public budget revenue reached 1.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, marking the first month of positive growth this year[1] - Non-tax revenue contributed 6.2 percentage points to the year-on-year revenue growth, up from 4.7 percentage points in August[1] - Tax revenue remains weak, particularly in value-added tax and consumption tax, which negatively impacted overall revenue growth[1] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in September was 2.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, significantly up by 11.9 percentage points from August[1] - Key expenditure areas such as agriculture, community services, and environmental protection saw notable increases, with social security and health spending also rising sharply[1] - Government fund budget revenue saw a significant narrowing of decline, with land transfer fees dropping by 18.8%, a reduction of 23.1 percentage points from previous months[1] Debt and Financing - Local government special bond issuance accelerated in September, exceeding 1.1 trillion yuan, primarily for special bonds[1] - By October 20, a total of 3.63 trillion yuan in special bonds had been issued, reaching 93% of the annual target[1] - Despite the acceleration in bond issuance, the utilization rate remains low, with unutilized special bond funds totaling around 2 trillion yuan, indicating a need for improved project implementation[1] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the improvement in public budget revenue may be temporary, influenced by short-term constraints in the real estate market and low inflation affecting tax revenue[1] - The long-term fiscal policy aims to enhance sustainable productivity, balancing growth, structural optimization, and exchange rate stability[1] - The forecast for the 2025 deficit rate is maintained at around 4.2%, with an economic growth target of approximately 4.5%[1]