有色及贵金属周报：美国大选临近，“定性”交易可期

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The upcoming U.S. election is expected to influence market dynamics, with rising support for Trump leading to increased inflation expectations and volatility in metal prices [3][6] - Recent economic data from the U.S. has been better than expected, contributing to a favorable outlook for industrial metals, particularly in the context of domestic policy changes in China [3][6] - Precious metals are anticipated to experience increased price fluctuations as the election approaches, with potential for a soft landing in the U.S. economy impacting gold prices [3][6] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Polls indicate Trump's support has surpassed Harris, with a 64% chance of winning as of October 23 [3][6] - The market is reacting to inflation expectations, with simultaneous increases in U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin [3][6] - Domestic fiscal data shows a positive turnaround, with September revenue and expenditure growth turning positive for the first time this year [3][6] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW non-ferrous metals index rose by 4.89% this week, ranking 20th among sectors [10] - Key stocks recommended include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with others like Western Mining and China Aluminum also highlighted [3][6] 3. Metal Prices and Inventory 3.1. Industrial Metals - Copper prices on SHFE are at 76,390 CNY/ton, down 0.77% weekly, while aluminum is at 20,760 CNY/ton, up 0.58% [12][13] - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum show fluctuations, with copper social inventory at 163,100 tons [28][30] 3.2. Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased, with SHFE gold at 624.72 CNY/gram and COMEX gold at 2,760.80 USD/ounce [14][15] - Silver prices also rose, with SHFE silver at 8,410 CNY/kilogram and COMEX silver at 33.88 USD/ounce [14][15] 4. Macro Data Tracking - U.S. economic indicators show a CPI increase of 2.40% in September, while China's industrial value added rose by 5.4% year-on-year [16][18] - The Federal Reserve's target rate is currently at 5.0%, with inflation expectations influencing market dynamics [16][17]