天目湖：极端天气影响暑期客流，新项目稳步推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 405 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.77%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 85.42 million yuan, down 28.84% year-on-year. The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to extreme weather conditions affecting summer visitor numbers [5][6]. - The company is focusing on developing a one-stop tourism and educational base, capitalizing on the shift in consumer preferences towards leisure travel. It is actively advancing annual projects and planning light asset outputs to expand growth opportunities [6]. - The company is preparing for the construction of the second phase of the Nanshan Xiaozhai project and is collaborating with local authorities on the development of the Pingqiao Shiba area. The opening of the Hushu Lake High-speed Railway is expected to enhance visitor traffic [6][7]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects total revenue of 570 million yuan, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year, with net profit projected at 135 million yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. The earnings per share are estimated to be 0.50 yuan [7][9]. - The gross margin is expected to be 53.5% in 2024, with a gradual increase to 56.0% by 2026. The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 6.5% in 2024 to 11.5% in 2026 [7][9].