EASTMONEY(SZ:300059)2024-10-27 06:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Caifu (300059) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 shows a total revenue of 7.304 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.96%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.042 billion yuan, down 2.69% year-on-year [2] - Despite market pressure, the company's securities business remains stable, with a slight increase in margin financing market share [2][3] - The report highlights the potential for earnings elasticity due to increased trading activity and upcoming public fund fee reforms [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's total revenue was 2.359 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.86% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.986 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.09% year-on-year [2] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased by 8.6% year-on-year, impacting the company's commission income, which fell by 5.33% to 3.56 billion yuan in the first three quarters [2] - The company's self-operated investment business saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 49.8% year-on-year to 2.402 billion yuan in the first three quarters [2] Market Conditions - The new fund issuance in Q3 2024 saw a significant decline, with new fund shares down 22% year-on-year and 54% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The report notes a recovery in trading volumes since late September 2024, with average daily stock trading volume rising to 20.062 billion yuan in October, a 152% increase compared to September [3] Earnings Forecast - The report raises profit forecasts for 2024-2026, projecting net profits of 8.84 billion yuan, 11.00 billion yuan, and 12.00 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.56, 0.70, and 0.76 yuan [3][4] - The current closing price corresponds to a 2024E PE ratio of 40.5 times, indicating a favorable valuation in light of expected earnings growth [3]