有色金属行业周报：环保管控影响氧化铝供给预期，氧化铝价格强势上涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of environmental regulations on aluminum supply expectations, leading to a strong increase in alumina prices [1][3] - The third adjustment of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in 2024 has been implemented, with a decrease of 0.25 percentage points for both one-year and five-year LPRs, which is expected to support the non-ferrous metals sector [2] - The report emphasizes the overall positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector due to favorable monetary policies and anticipated economic recovery [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have increased, with gold ETF holdings rising. As of October 25, 2024, the Shanghai Gold Exchange spot price for gold was 622 CNY per gram, reflecting a weekly change of 0.8% and a yearly change of 32.0% [10] - Industrial Metals: There is a divergence in metal prices, with copper prices declining. As of October 25, 2024, SHFE copper was priced at 76,390 CNY per ton, down 0.8% weekly, while LME copper was at 9,385 USD per ton, down 0.9% [16] - Aluminum prices have risen, with SHFE aluminum at 20,760 CNY per ton, up 0.6% weekly, and LME aluminum at 2,600.5 USD per ton, up 1.9% [22] - The report notes that alumina prices have surged to 4,810 CNY per ton, driven by strong demand from the electrolytic aluminum market [24][27] 2. Market Performance - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the broader market, with specific recommendations for companies such as Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining [4][8] - The report suggests that the expected economic recovery and supportive policies will lead to a rebound in industrial metal prices, particularly aluminum and copper [4][22] 3. Important Events Review - The report mentions significant geopolitical tensions affecting precious metal prices, particularly gold, which has seen increased demand as a safe-haven asset [2][4] - The report also highlights the ongoing recovery in manufacturing and construction sectors, which is expected to boost demand for industrial metals [4][19]