煤炭行业周报：补库需求渐近，煤价反弹开启

Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The demand for replenishment is approaching, leading to a rebound in coal prices. The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal has risen to 855 CNY/ton, an increase of approximately 15 CNY/ton (+1.79%) compared to the previous week. The overall supply has slightly increased due to the resumption of production in major mining areas [1][2] - The short-term outlook for coal prices is optimistic, with expectations of a rebound supported by the upcoming heating season in northern provinces and resilient non-electric demand [1][2] - The long-term price forecast for thermal coal is expected to stabilize above 850 CNY/ton, with a potential rise to over 1000 CNY/ton by 2025 due to economic recovery and stable demand [1][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - Price Analysis: Thermal coal prices have increased, while coking coal prices have decreased. As of October 25, 2024, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 855 CNY/ton (+1.79%), while the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port has dropped to 1760 CNY/ton (-7.85%) [10][12] - Supply and Demand Analysis: The railway input volume has increased, while port throughput has decreased. As of October 25, 2024, the railway input volume at Qinhuangdao Port is 502,000 tons (+17.84%), and the port throughput is 532,000 tons (-7.64%) [19][21] - Inventory Analysis: Both northern and southern ports have seen an increase in thermal coal inventory. As of October 26, 2024, Qinhuangdao's inventory is 576,000 tons (+4.35%) [21][22] 2. Market Review - The coal sector has underperformed the broader market, with the coal sector rising by 0.32% compared to a 1.2% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index as of October 25, 2024 [28][29] 3. Key Events Review - The report highlights the impact of recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to support black demand and improve market sentiment [3][4]