Tebon Securities·2024-10-27 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in net profit for Q3 2024, with significant long-term growth potential despite a year-on-year decline in revenue and profit [2][4] - The coal business showed an increase in self-produced coal sales and a decrease in costs, while the chemical business experienced a slight decline in production and sales but managed to offset price impacts [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 106.63 billion, down 21.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.41 billion, down 26.98% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 34.32 billion, down 15.46% year-on-year but up 5.03% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 3.84 billion, up 15.6% year-on-year and up 0.66% quarter-on-quarter [4] Coal Business - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company produced and sold 105.81 million and 101.34 million tons of coal, respectively, representing increases of 8.75% and 2.18% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of coal in Q3 was 680.48 yuan/ton, down 2.68% year-on-year, while the comprehensive cost was 339 yuan/ton, down 12.35% year-on-year [4] Chemical Business - The chemical production and sales for the first three quarters of 2024 were 6.36 million and 5.70 million tons, down 2.16% and 3.36% year-on-year [4] - In Q3, the average selling price of chemical products was 3,176.92 yuan/ton, down 4.33% year-on-year, while the unit sales cost was 2,408.21 yuan/ton, down 1.79% year-on-year [4] Future Growth and Dividends - The company plans to officially launch the Wanfu coal mine in 2024 and the first phase of the Wucaiwan No. 4 open-pit mine in 2025, with long-term growth in coal production expected [4] - The company has set a profit distribution policy of approximately 60% of net profit after deducting statutory reserves for the years 2023-2025, with a cash dividend of 0.23 yuan per share announced for the mid-year [4][5] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 145.5 billion, 149.4 billion, and 152.8 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 14.9 billion, 16.7 billion, and 17.2 billion [5][6]