贵州茅台：三季报点评：收入表现良好，全年目标有序推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 173.41 billion, 185.99 billion, and 201.15 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.18%, 7.25%, and 8.15% [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 85.91 billion, 92.81 billion, and 100.75 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 14.95%, 8.03%, and 8.56% [2][7]. - The report indicates a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.47% and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 21, and 19 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][7]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 123.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.91%, and a net profit of 60.83 billion yuan, up 15.04% year-on-year [7]. - For Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 39.67 billion yuan, a 15.56% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 19.13 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.23% year-on-year growth [7]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 91.23%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by cost and product mix changes [7]. Product and Channel Performance - In Q3 2024, revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor reached 32.56 billion and 6.25 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 16.32% and 13.14% [7]. - Direct sales and wholesale channels generated revenues of 18.26 billion and 20.54 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 23.50% and 9.72% [7]. - The "i Moutai" platform contributed 4.52 billion yuan in revenue, marking an 18.37% increase year-on-year [7]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its strong brand barriers and various measures to stabilize volume and price expectations, leading to a sustained increase in market share [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the company's robust growth trajectory and maintains a positive outlook for its financial performance in the coming years [2][7].