Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) Guolian Securities·2024-10-27 08:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 14.727 billion, 15.340 billion, and 15.951 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.62%, 4.16%, and 3.98% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 0.927 billion, 1.096 billion, and 1.273 billion yuan, with growth rates of 43.80%, 18.24%, and 16.12% respectively, resulting in a three-year CAGR of 25.45% [2][6] - The company continues to benefit from the growth momentum of its flagship product U8 and has significant profit release potential through cost reduction and efficiency improvement [2][6] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.846 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%, and a net profit of 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year. For Q3 2024, revenue was 4.800 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year, and net profit was 0.530 billion yuan, up 19.84% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 47.99%, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase, while the net profit margin improved to 11.04%, up 1.81 percentage points year-on-year [6] Sales and Cost Structure - The company sold 3.4473 million kiloliters in the first three quarters, with a ton price of 3,726.44 yuan, and a ton cost of 2,046.07 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase in sales volume and ton price [6] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product mix with mid-to-high-end products, which is expected to further drive sales growth and improve pricing power compared to peers [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected revenue and profit growth driven by the ongoing release of reform dividends and the continued success of its flagship product U8 [2][6]