轻工制造行业定期报告：家居家纺迎政策补贴，边际改善已现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cyclical recovery trend in the light industry sector, particularly in home furnishings and paper manufacturing [2][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishings sector is benefiting from accelerated national subsidy policies, with significant discounts expected for high-value customized products, potentially leading to a recovery in terminal orders [2][3]. - The paper industry is seeing a stabilization in prices, with demand expected to rebound as the peak season approaches, indicating a potential recovery in industry profitability [2][3]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishings - Since October, multiple regions have implemented subsidy policies for home furnishings, with notable examples including a 15% subsidy in Guangzhou, which could significantly impact high-value customized products [2][3]. - Major brands such as Oppein, Sofitel, and Zhijia are expected to benefit from these policies, with a focus on the progress of home textile subsidies [2][3]. Paper Manufacturing - As of October 25, 2024, the prices for various paper products are as follows: double glue paper at 5162.5 CNY/ton (unchanged), copper plate paper at 5400 CNY/ton (-30 CNY/ton), white card paper at 4146 CNY/ton (-10 CNY/ton), box board paper at 3608.2 CNY/ton (+2 CNY/ton), and corrugated paper at 2632.5 CNY/ton (+3.75 CNY/ton) [2][3][32]. - The demand for box and corrugated paper is expected to improve as the peak season approaches, with leading companies in the waste paper sector, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International, being closely monitored [2][3]. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is also showing signs of recovery, with the Shanghai government announcing new subsidy policies for home textiles, which include various bedding products [5][20]. - The retail sales of furniture improved in September, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, while furniture exports saw a decline of 12.3% [23][25]. Packaging - The express delivery business volume in September reached 14.97 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, indicating a robust demand for packaging solutions [5][29]. - The report highlights the potential benefits for large packaging companies like Yutong Technology due to the recovery in consumer electronics demand [5][29].