原油周报：地缘及宏观影响，油价回升但方向仍不明朗

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price cycle is fundamentally driven by supply-side factors, with some oil-producing countries shifting from market share competition to price support strategies. The U.S. oil production faces constraints due to resource degradation and inflationary pressures, while OPEC+ maintains a strong capability and willingness to support high oil prices [1][8]. - Global oil demand is expected to continue growing in the medium to long term, leading to a persistent tight supply-demand balance in the oil market [8]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of October 25, 2024, international oil prices showed a fluctuating upward trend, with Brent and WTI prices at $76.05 and $71.78 per barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 4.09% and 4.50% from the previous week [1][7]. Oil Price Outlook - The U.S. shale oil production is limited by long-term growth capacity constraints, and OPEC+ is expected to maintain its production cuts to stabilize prices. The global oil supply is unlikely to meet the increasing demand, suggesting that oil prices will remain at mid-to-high levels in the future [8][14]. Oil and Gas Sector Performance - As of October 25, 2024, the oil and gas sector outperformed the broader market, with the sector rising by 1.41% compared to a 0.79% increase in the CSI 300 index. The oil service engineering sector rose by 2.21%, while the refining and trading sector increased by 1.54% [9][10]. Oil Prices - Brent crude futures settled at $76.05 per barrel, up $2.99 per barrel (+4.09%) from the previous week. WTI crude futures settled at $71.78 per barrel, up $3.09 per barrel (+4.50%) [14]. U.S. Oil Supply and Demand - As of October 18, 2024, U.S. crude oil production remained stable at 13.5 million barrels per day, with refinery crude processing increasing to 16.084 million barrels per day, reflecting a rise in the refinery utilization rate to 89.50% [2][8].