Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading companies in the logistics sector, particularly in the express delivery segment [5]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant growth in business volume, with a year-on-year increase of 18.7% in September 2024, outpacing the growth of physical online retail sales at 6.41% [7][9]. - The trend of small parcel delivery continues to drive rapid growth in the express delivery sector, despite a decline in average revenue per parcel, which was 7.94 yuan in September 2024, down 7.08% year-on-year [14]. - Price competition is shifting towards non-grain-producing areas, with business volume growth in these regions surpassing that of grain-producing areas [18]. Industry Volume and Price - In September 2024, the express delivery business volume growth rates for first, second, and third-tier regions were 17.39%, 24.59%, and 28.29% respectively, indicating stronger growth in non-grain-producing areas [18]. - The average revenue per parcel has been declining due to the small parcel trend, with a slight recovery in prices observed in the peak season [14][9]. Company Performance - In September 2024, the business volume growth rates for major companies were as follows: YTO Express at +28.03%, Yunda at +21.99%, Shentong at +21.93%, and SF Express at +12.64%, all exceeding the industry average growth rate of 18.70% [23][24]. - The average revenue per parcel for these companies in September 2024 was reported as follows: YTO Express at 2.18 yuan, Yunda at 2.01 yuan, Shentong at 2.02 yuan, and SF Express at 16.00 yuan, with year-on-year declines noted for most [7][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the express delivery sector, highlighting the potential for growth and stability in their performance [7].
快递行业9月月报：步入旺季价格有所修复，增速仍具韧性
Guohai Securities·2024-10-27 08:23