汽车行业月报：“银十”持续回暖，新车型提振市场

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1]. Core Insights - The automotive market is showing signs of recovery, with new models boosting sales. In October, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.264 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 12% [1][21]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continues to rise, with NEV sales in September reaching 1.287 million units, a year-on-year increase of 42.3%, resulting in a penetration rate of 45.8% [2][14]. - The report highlights strong performance from domestic brands, which accounted for 63.8% of the market share in the first nine months of 2024, up 9.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][24]. Market Review - In October, the automotive sector (CITIC) index rose by 0.46%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.11% [5][7]. - The cumulative retail sales of passenger vehicles for the year reached 16.838 million units, a 3% increase year-on-year [1][21]. - The report notes that the commercial vehicle segment, including trucks and buses, experienced month-on-month growth in September, with truck sales reaching 242,000 units, up 4.4% [1][32]. Industry Overview - In September, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.796 million and 2.809 million units, respectively, with a month-on-month increase of 12.2% and 14.5% [14][28]. - The report indicates that the inventory level of automotive dealers is below the warning line, with a stock coefficient of 1.29, down 14.6% year-on-year [14][15]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in the commercial vehicle market, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, which has led to increased sales in buses and heavy trucks [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued attention to the intelligent vehicle sector and the potential for growth in domestic brands with strong product cycles and global expansion strategies [2][3]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to sustain its positive impact on the market, with over 1.42 million applications for vehicle scrapping subsidies submitted by mid-October [2][3].