9月外贸数据点评：增速不及预期，出口或维持低位增长

Export Performance - In September, exports grew by 2.4% year-on-year, significantly below the market expectation of 5.9% and down from 8.7% in August[1] - The decline in exports is attributed to extreme weather events, a high base from the previous year, and a continued downturn in global manufacturing demand, with the global PMI at 48.8[1][6] - Exports to emerging economies outperformed those to developed economies, with ASEAN exports decreasing by 3.5 percentage points, while exports to the EU dropped from 13.4% to 1.3%, a decline of 12.1 percentage points[9][10] Product Analysis - Mechanical and electrical products remain the largest contributors to export growth, with a growth rate of 3.8%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall export growth[12] - High-tech product exports turned negative for the first time since Q2, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, dragging down overall export growth by 0.3 percentage points[12] - Labor-intensive consumer goods, such as footwear and ceramics, experienced negative growth, collectively reducing export growth by 1.4 percentage points[12] Import Trends - Imports grew by only 0.3% year-on-year in September, below the expected 1.2%, reflecting weak domestic demand and declining commodity prices[17][19] - The import growth of agricultural products like grains and soybeans was robust, with growth rates of 18.9% and 40.0%, respectively, driven by lower international prices[20] - High-tech product imports maintained strong growth, with integrated circuit imports increasing by 11.2%[20] Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to remain low, with external demand signals indicating a continued weakening trend, while domestic policies may provide some support if effectively implemented[23][24] - The balance of opposing forces suggests that exports may achieve small single-digit growth in the near term[23]