策略专题研究：本轮行情逻辑线索探析

Group 1 - The current market is likely at the end of the profit decline cycle, with Q2 2024 expected to be the low point for A-share net profit growth, indicating a potential gradual recovery ahead [2][8][19] - Historical experiences suggest that markets tend to rise towards the end of profit decline cycles, as investors begin to anticipate a rebound in profit growth [8][12] - The A-share market has experienced significant declines in net profit growth since 2022, with a notable downturn in 2023H2, but signs of stabilization are emerging [2][8] Group 2 - Domestic liquidity has been in a loose state since the beginning of the year, further enhanced by the "9.24" financial policy measures, which included interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2][12][15] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut marks the beginning of a global easing cycle, benefiting equity assets, particularly in emerging markets like China [15][19] - Historical data from 2019 shows that after the Fed's rate cuts, domestic liquidity conditions improved, leading to significant excess returns in equity assets [15][19] Group 3 - A series of incremental policies have been introduced since late September, covering various sectors such as finance, real estate, and small enterprises, effectively stabilizing expectations and confidence [2][19][21] - The importance of new productive forces has been emphasized, with government initiatives aimed at fostering technological innovation and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises [19][27] - Recent government meetings have outlined strong signals for stabilizing growth, including increased fiscal and monetary policy adjustments [19][21] Group 4 - The current market rally is not yet over, with a focus on technology growth sectors, driven by the ongoing global AI revolution and the rising semiconductor cycle [3][27] - As of October 22, 2024, the valuation of the A-share market remains low compared to historical levels, suggesting potential for further upside [23][24] - There is significant room for long-term capital inflows into the Chinese market, as current allocations remain below historical peaks [23][25]