稀土行业首次覆盖：新老动力共振，反转大幕拉开

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the rare earth industry with a rating of "Accumulate" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply of rare earths in China has seen significant integration, while overseas supply is growing slowly, leading to a strengthened supply rigidity. The demand for rare earths is expected to be supported by the acceleration of equipment renewal policies and the revival of magnetic material demand, indicating a reshaping of the supply-demand landscape and a potential price reversal [2][3]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - Domestic integration of the rare earth industry has accelerated since 2023, with the combined mining quotas of China Rare Earth Group and Northern Rare Earth reaching 100%, significantly optimizing the supply structure. The first and second batches of mining quotas for 2024 total 270,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, but a slowdown in growth rate compared to 2023 [3][10]. - Overseas, while there are many rare earth mines under construction, progress is slow, and actual incremental supply is expected to remain limited in the next 2-3 years [19][25]. Demand Side - The core drivers of rare earth demand from 2020 to 2024 are expected to come from the electric vehicle sector, with demand growth anchoring price directions. The report predicts that the global demand growth for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron is expected to reach 18%, 18%, and 16% from 2024 to 2026, respectively [8][27]. - The demand for rare earths is anticipated to be supported by the increasing use of magnetic materials in electric vehicles and the recovery of wind power demand, with the equipment renewal demand expected to become a new driver for rare earth demand starting in 2024 [3][27]. Price Outlook - After a significant decline in rare earth prices in 2022, the prices began to stabilize in the second half of 2023. The report suggests that due to the slowdown in the growth of the first and second batches of rare earth quotas and strong price support from manufacturers, prices are expected to continue to recover [3][9]. Key Companies Covered - The report covers several key companies in the rare earth sector, all rated "Accumulate": - Northern Rare Earth (600111) - China Rare Earth (000831) - Guangsheng Nonferrous (600259) - Shenghe Resources (600392) [4][7].