华润饮料首次覆盖报告：天高海阔，引领成长

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage [3][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve excess returns due to its high cost-performance strategy, family water upgrade initiatives, improved channel capabilities, and increased self-owned production capacity [2]. - The packaging water industry is projected to grow significantly, with a clear oligopolistic structure. The sales CAGR from 2023 to 2028 is expected to reach 6.2%, driven by health-conscious drinking and water safety trends [3][18]. - The company aims to expand its user base through a three-pronged approach: product innovation, channel expansion, and marketing strategies targeting sports demographics [3][19]. Financial Summary - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.70, 0.79, and 0.88 RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 23%, 12%, and 11% respectively. The target price is set at 17.06 RMB, corresponding to 18.64 HKD [3][11]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 145, 156, and 168 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, 7%, and 8% respectively [9][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 48.4%, 48.9%, and 50.0% over the same period, driven by reduced raw material costs and increased self-production [9][10]. Industry Analysis - The packaging water industry is characterized by a clear oligopolistic structure, with the top five companies holding a market share of 59% in packaging water and 54% in pure drinking water as of 2023 [3][18]. - The company holds a leading market share of 33% in the pure drinking water segment, indicating its strong competitive position [3][18]. - The beverage segment is gradually becoming a second growth curve for the company, with a CAGR of 38.6% from 2021 to 2023, significantly outpacing the industry average [18][19]. Product and Channel Strategy - The company has a robust product matrix, with 13 brands and 59 SKUs covering major categories in the ready-to-drink beverage market [15][16]. - The distribution strategy focuses on regional expansion and enhancing coverage in lower-tier markets, with a significant increase in e-commerce sales, which reached 7.1 billion RMB in 2023 [19][20]. - The company has established a comprehensive sales network, with over 1,198 distributors covering more than 2 million retail outlets across China [19][21].