POP MART(09992) 国联证券·2024-10-27 08:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) [2][4] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue growth exceeded expectations, with overall revenue increasing by 120%-125% YoY [6] - Domestic online strategy adjustments have shown significant results, with key channels like Tmall and blind box machines experiencing accelerated growth [6] - The company's "IP X Category X Globalization" strategy continues to evolve, with strong performance from key IPs like Labubu and SkullPanda, and rapid expansion in overseas markets [6] Financial Performance and Projections - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: - Mainland China: +55%-60% YoY - Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas: +440%-445% YoY [6] - Key domestic channel growth in Q3 2024: - Retail stores: +30%-35% YoY - Robot stores: +20%-25% YoY - Blind box machines: +55%-60% YoY - E-commerce and other online platforms: +135%-140% YoY [6] - Financial projections for 2024-2026: - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 27.9/36.2/45.4 billion yuan - EPS: 2.07/2.70/3.38 yuan - PE ratio: 34/26/21x [2][6] IP and Product Performance - Labubu: - "ZIMOMO Big Angel" received over 170,000 reservations on JD - New "THE MONSTERS Building Blocks Series 2" recently launched [6] - SkullPanda: - First plush product "Soft and Tough" launched in October 2024, with an average resale price of nearly 2,800 yuan on secondary markets [6] - New IP "Starman": - First blind box series sold over 9,000 units on Tmall by October 25, 2024 [6] Global Expansion - Overseas store count reached 83 by H1 2024, with plans to add 30-40 new stores in H2 2024, focusing on North America and Southeast Asia [6] - The 100th overseas store opened in Jakarta, Indonesia on July 19, 2024, indicating accelerated global expansion [6] Valuation and Market Data - Current stock price: 70.75 HKD [4] - Market capitalization: 95,013.23 million HKD [4] - Historical stock price range: 78.00 HKD (high) / 16.90 HKD (low) over the past year [4]