周大福：FY2025H1收入下滑20%左右，经调整后利润率或有改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Buy" [1][2]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue, with FY2025H1 expected to see a revenue drop of approximately 20% and a net profit decrease of 42% to 46% year-on-year. However, adjusted profit margins may improve due to product structure optimization and cost control [1][2]. - The retail environment is currently volatile, with a significant decline in RSV (retail sales value) of 21% in FY2025Q2 compared to the previous year. The mainland market has seen a similar decline, impacting overall sales performance [1][2]. - Despite the challenges, the company is focusing on high-margin pricing products, which have shown better sales performance, helping to mitigate the overall decline in retail sales [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company expects a revenue decline of 16% and a net profit drop of 10%. The revenue for FY2025 is projected at 91.03 billion HKD, with a net profit of 5.84 billion HKD [2][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 94.68 billion HKD in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of -4.3%. The net profit for the same year was 5.38 billion HKD, reflecting a -19.8% change [3][4]. Market Analysis - The retail sales in the mainland for July to September 2024 saw a decline of 21%, with direct store sales dropping by 24.3% and franchise store sales by 20.3%. The high gold prices have pressured the sales of gold jewelry, while fixed-price products have performed well [1][2]. - The company has optimized its store structure, with a total of 7,113 stores globally as of September 2024, including 6,968 in the mainland. The company is slowing down its store opening pace and closing underperforming locations [1][2]. Profitability Outlook - The adjusted profit margin is expected to improve due to better product mix and cost management, despite the overall revenue decline. The company aims to enhance profitability through strategic pricing and product offerings [1][2]. - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is 0.59 HKD, with a projected P/E ratio of 13.4 times [3][4].