Zhujiang Brewery(002461) Tai Ping Yang·2024-10-27 09:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Zhujiang Beer (002461) with a target price of 10.36, compared to the last closing price of 9.58 [1]. Core Views - Zhujiang Beer reported strong sales growth in Q3 2024, with a notable performance from its flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, which continues to show high growth momentum [2][3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.887 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 808 million yuan, up 25.35% year-on-year [2][3]. - Despite a slight decline in the overall beer industry due to adverse weather and weak consumption, Zhujiang Beer managed to increase its sales volume by 2.7% year-on-year, with high-end beer sales growing by 14.8% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Zhujiang Beer reported revenue of 1.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.89%, and a net profit of 307 million yuan, up 10.60% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s gross margin reached 49.32% in Q1-Q3 2024, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix upgrades and cost optimization [2][3]. - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 16.50%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Sales and Cost Structure - The average selling price per ton increased by 4.5% year-on-year to 4,135 yuan, while the cost per ton decreased by 2.7% to 2,096 yuan [2]. - The sales expense ratio increased year-on-year, reflecting heightened promotional activities during the peak season [2]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 8% for 2024, 8% for 2025, and 7% for 2026, with net profit growth expected at 33%, 17%, and 15% respectively [2][3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.37 yuan in 2024, 0.44 yuan in 2025, and 0.50 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23x, 19x, and 17x [2][3].