YANGYUAN(SH:603156) Huaxin Securities·2024-10-27 09:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company's profit fell short of expectations due to significant impacts from investment income, with overall consumer demand remaining weak [1] - Revenue growth for the first three quarters of 2024 was in line with expectations, but net profit decreased significantly [1] - The company is focusing on channel expansion for its walnut milk products and increasing the volume of functional beverages, despite short-term performance being affected by overall consumption weakness and investment income losses [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, total revenue was 12.87 billion yuan, down 18.79% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.99 billion yuan, down 47.26% [1] - The non-recurring net profit for Q1-Q3 was 9.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.32% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 was 46.53%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 29.06%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year [1] Regional and Channel Performance - Revenue by region for Q3 2024 was as follows: East China 5.09 billion yuan (down 15.01%), Central China 2.98 billion yuan (down 20.69%), North China 2.59 billion yuan (down 29.67%), and Southwest 1.14 billion yuan (down 6.52%) [1] - Direct sales performance remained stable, while the distribution channel was significantly impacted, with revenue from distribution and direct sales in Q3 2024 being 12.32 billion yuan (down 19.93%) and 0.46 billion yuan (up 1.80%) respectively [1] Earnings Forecast - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 1.00, 1.19, and 1.37 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21, 18, and 15 times [2] - The forecasted main revenue for 2024 is 5.536 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 10.1% year-on-year, with a projected growth of 8.1% in 2025 and 9.4% in 2026 [4]