2024年第四季度市场策略报告：增量政策预期升温，指数中枢将逐步上移

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to stabilize, with a gradual upward shift in the index center due to improved liquidity and policy expectations [2][3][9] - The report highlights that the global economic environment is showing signs of cooling, but a turning point in global liquidity has been reached, particularly with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle [3][4][9] - The report emphasizes that the domestic economic recovery foundation remains weak, with GDP growth in the first three quarters at 4.8%, still below the 5% target, which strengthens the expectation for incremental policy measures [3][4][9] Group 2 - The report suggests that the investment sector is still at a low point, and the effectiveness of incremental fiscal policies may not be seen until November-December [3][4][9] - Consumer recovery is expected to remain weak in the fourth quarter, constrained by reduced wealth effects and the current employment market [3][4][9] - The export sector is anticipated to stabilize in the fourth quarter, with high-frequency data indicating a potential weak recovery in October [3][4][9] Group 3 - The report recommends increasing allocations to stock assets in the fourth quarter, focusing on sectors such as technology growth, which is expected to experience rapid development [3][4][9] - It also highlights the potential for valuation elasticity in sectors benefiting from interest rate cuts, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and precious metals [3][4][9] - The report notes opportunities in cyclical sectors, particularly in the real estate industry and consumer sectors, as expectations for marginal economic improvement rise [3][4][9]