XTC(600549) 国泰君安·2024-10-27 09:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - In Q3 2024, the prices of tungsten and related products declined, leading to a decrease in tungsten wire sales and a drop in profitability for most rare earth products, except for magnetic materials. However, the energy new materials segment saw an increase in shipment volume and improved profits on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.402 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.78%. In Q3 alone, the net profit was 386 million yuan, up 4.32% year-on-year but down 34.56% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The report adjusts the company's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.31, 1.51, and 1.71 yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 0.09 yuan for 2024 and 2025, and a decrease of 0.08 yuan for 2026 [2]. - The target price has been raised to 25.67 yuan from the previous 24.50 yuan, based on a 17x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the tungsten and molybdenum segment's revenue increased by 7.04% year-on-year to 13.249 billion yuan, with total profit rising by 17.34% to 1.96 billion yuan. However, Q3 revenue was 4.47 billion yuan, down 6% quarter-on-quarter, and total profit was 533 million yuan, down 40% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The average price of domestic tungsten concentrate (65% WO3) in Q3 2024 was 136,100 yuan, down 6% quarter-on-quarter, while the average price of tungsten powder was 305.3 yuan per kilogram, down 4.34% [2]. - The energy materials segment reported revenue of 9.882 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 24.69%, but Q3 revenue was approximately 3.58 billion yuan, up 19% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The rare earth segment's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 3.203 billion yuan, down 18.25% year-on-year, but total profit increased by 61.92% to 180 million yuan [2]. Market Data - The current stock price is 20.10 yuan, with a target price of 25.67 yuan [4]. - The market capitalization is approximately 28.504 billion yuan [5]. - The stock has traded within a range of 14.06 to 21.55 yuan over the past 52 weeks [5].