国科天成：制冷红外产品需求景气叠加核心部件业务取得阶段性进展，共同支撑公司业绩向好

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [1]. Core Views - The demand for cooling infrared products is thriving, supported by significant progress in core component businesses, which collectively bolster the company's performance [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 644 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 107 million yuan, up 41.85% year-on-year [1][4]. - The continuous advancement of national defense equipment modernization and the relative advantages of the company's core products in specific complex scenarios are key drivers for the strong performance [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a quarterly revenue of 267 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.16%, and a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 41.19% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 37.99%, a decrease of 2.56 percentage points compared to Q3 2023, attributed to product price fluctuations, increased interest expenses, and higher credit impairment provisions [1][4]. Revenue Projections - The company forecasts total revenues of 970 million yuan, 1.266 billion yuan, and 1.691 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.2%, 30.5%, and 33.6% [4][6]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 172 million yuan, 227 million yuan, and 305 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 36.0%, 31.4%, and 34.4% [4][6]. Business Segments - The infrared products segment is expected to generate revenues of 597 million yuan, 759 million yuan, and 937 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, with growth rates of 41.32%, 27.28%, and 23.36% [8][9]. - The components business, including cooling detectors and lenses, is projected to achieve revenues of 160 million yuan, 225 million yuan, and 317 million yuan over the same period, with growth rates of 38.68%, 40.59%, and 41.03% [8][9]. - The precision optics segment is anticipated to grow significantly, with revenues expected to reach 42 million yuan, 73 million yuan, and 177 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, reflecting growth rates of 20.0%, 73.33%, and 144.13% [8][9]. Market Position - The company is one of the few in China capable of producing high-resolution cooling infrared products and has established partnerships with several military and aerospace groups, enhancing its market position [1][4]. - The company is also investing in the development of T2SL cooling infrared technology, which is expected to provide competitive advantages in various applications [1][4].