洽洽食品2024年三季报点评：收入增速承压，成本红利延续

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.758 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 626 million yuan, up 23.79% year-on-year [2] - The revenue growth in Q3 was under pressure due to weak recovery in gifting scenarios, with Q3 revenue at 1.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.72% [2] - The company benefits from cost advantages, leading to a significant improvement in overall net profit margin, which increased by 2.27 percentage points to 15.55% in Q3 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022 was 6.883 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15%. In 2023, revenue decreased to 6.806 billion yuan, showing a decline of 1%. Forecasted revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.441 billion yuan, 8.249 billion yuan, and 9.108 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 9%, 11%, and 10% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 976 million yuan in 2022, dropping to 803 million yuan in 2023, but is expected to rise to 1.006 billion yuan in 2024, 1.141 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.315 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 25%, 13%, and 15% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) were 1.93 yuan in 2022, decreasing to 1.58 yuan in 2023, and are projected to be 1.98 yuan in 2024, 2.25 yuan in 2025, and 2.59 yuan in 2026 [2] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its product channels and improving demand. It aims to strengthen its high-end sunflower seed brand "Kuaizhen" and enhance its nut product offerings [2] - The company is actively pursuing market expansion in third and fourth-tier cities and county markets, while also developing new channels such as snack wholesale, membership stores, and community group buying [2] - Internationally, the company is concentrating on deepening its presence in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam and Indonesia [2] Profitability Outlook - The company anticipates continued cost advantages, with a projected net profit of 1.006 billion yuan for 2024, 1.141 billion yuan for 2025, and 1.315 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [2] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 improved by 6.31 percentage points to 33.11% [2]